BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Canada Goose in BCR 4 has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-25%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Goose in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.002.0
20260.620.002.0
20270.590.002.0
20280.560.001.9
20290.540.001.9

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Canada Goose in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nabesna RoadALASKA302006
CottonwoodALASKA231989
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA222001
Chena Hot SpALASKA181986
RubyALASKA92002
SlanaALASKA62024
ChistochinaALASKA62023
Murphy DomeALASKA62009
Anvik RiverALASKA62022
NorthwayALASKA52019
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA52023
Galena (Short)ALASKA52024
Unalakleet RiverALASKA42008
Hather CreekALASKA42018
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA41992
Tower BluffsALASKA32022
Hatcher PassALASKA32012
Porcupine R.ALASKA32001
CircleALASKA21992
Birch LakeALASKA22022
MonahanALASKA22014
CantwellALASKA22011
KalifonskyALASKA22023
L SalchaALASKA22008
Nicholai SlALASKA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.