BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 69× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

69×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 69× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.62.44.9
20263.72.55.0
20273.82.55.0
20283.92.65.1
20293.92.75.2

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Canada Goose in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RoyaltonILLINOIS872023
MincyMISSOURI762024
PimentoINDIANA702024
BrazilINDIANA332022
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY262021
Buena VistaKENTUCKY232016
Cross PlainsINDIANA222022
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY222024
WoodlandvilleMISSOURI222024
Clear SpringINDIANA212023
ReedsMISSOURI172023
GeorgiaINDIANA162019
RichlandMISSOURI162015
JoyKENTUCKY152023
SwedenMISSOURI152024
LurtonARKANSAS142023
BirdsILLINOIS132023
BrownvilleILLINOIS132024
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA122010
VevayINDIANA122001
EastviewKENTUCKY122024
CelestineINDIANA112019
New PhilaINDIANA112024
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE112024
Sulphur LickKENTUCKY102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.