BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 40× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

40×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
258Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 40× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Canada Goose In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 10 (95% range 7.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.6–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 10 (95% range 7.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.76.913
20279.97.113
2028107.213
2029107.413
2030107.613

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Canada Goose in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EldredILLINOIS5092025
BartonvilleILLINOIS862025
LyonsNEBRASKA782025
Red RockIOWA772025
WilliamsburgIOWA722022
River FallsWISCONSIN582025
McfallMISSOURI572025
GreenviewILLINOIS542023
W CarrolltonOHIO532014
FriendswoodINDIANA522024
GeneseoILLINOIS502025
Mill CreekILLINOIS462023
AthensvilleILLINOIS462025
DudleyvilleILLINOIS462024
ExlineIOWA452025
WayneILLINOIS442025
BelleviewILLINOIS442025
DaileyILLINOIS432025
PaysonILLINOIS432025
FairburyILLINOIS422022
MarshallILLINOIS392025
BerneINDIANA392025
AldenILLINOIS372023
Bluff SpgsILLINOIS362025
CubaINDIANA362021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.