BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

33×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
256Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.56.612
20269.76.813
20279.87.013
2028107.213
2029107.313

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Canada Goose in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RichlandNEBRASKA1322024
PontiacILLINOIS1302024
CameronMISSOURI832022
WilliamsburgIOWA722022
GreenviewILLINOIS542023
W CarrolltonOHIO532014
FriendswoodINDIANA522024
Mill CreekILLINOIS462023
DudleyvilleILLINOIS462024
WilliamsfldILLINOIS452024
FairburyILLINOIS422022
StreatorILLINOIS412024
MelroseIOWA402019
KirksvilleMISSOURI402023
AldenILLINOIS372023
Lake SummersetILLINOIS372019
McfallMISSOURI372024
CubaINDIANA362021
LincolnvilleKANSAS362019
BarnardMISSOURI362010
BotkinsOHIO362019
MarionOHIO362021
AuburnMISSOURI342024
CubaOHIO342024
ShannonILLINOIS332024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.