BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

35×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 7.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.1–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 7.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.1–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.62.78.5
20265.72.88.6
20275.82.98.7
20285.93.08.9
20296.13.19.0

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Canada Goose in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KayceeWYOMING1322024
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA1032024
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA952019
St XavierMONTANA792010
Flatwillow 2MONTANA682018
Two DotMONTANA492024
Maynard CouleeMONTANA422018
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA402024
BillWYOMING362018
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA332022
WebsterMONTANA312024
Cabin CreekMONTANA312023
SeelyWYOMING301999
RoundupMONTANA282024
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA282023
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA272011
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA262021
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA212023
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA192014
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA182024
HighwoodMONTANA172024
ShawmutMONTANA172023
Wheat BasinMONTANA172024
Hehn DrawMONTANA162024
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA162011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.