BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 28× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

28×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 28× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Canada Goose In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 7.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 3.4–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–9.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 7.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 3.4–9.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.82.98.7
20275.93.08.8
20286.13.29.0
20296.23.39.1
20306.33.49.2

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Canada Goose in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KayceeWYOMING1462025
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA1032024
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA952019
St XavierMONTANA792010
RozetWYOMING782025
Flatwillow 2MONTANA682018
Two DotMONTANA592025
WinnettMONTANA372025
BillWYOMING362018
DwyerWYOMING342025
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA332022
Seely 2WYOMING322025
Cabin CreekMONTANA312023
SeelyWYOMING301999
RoundupMONTANA282024
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA282025
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA272011
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA262021
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA252025
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA192014
IngomarMONTANA182025
Wheat BasinMONTANA182025
HighwoodMONTANA172024
ShawmutMONTANA172023
Hehn DrawMONTANA162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.