BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 128× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

128×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 128× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 19–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 19–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025321648
2026331749
2027331849
2028341850
2029351951

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Canada Goose in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA2072024
RedstoneMONTANA2052018
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA1342024
WashingtonIOWA1292024
PoncaNEBRASKA1042019
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA1012023
ScrantonIOWA992024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA932024
HartlandMINNESOTA912017
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA852024
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA802021
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA682024
WinsideNEBRASKA602003
DawsonMINNESOTA562022
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA532023
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA522024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA492024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA462024
FairmontMINNESOTA452023
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA442024
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA422022
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA402022
ClareIOWA382019
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA362024
Winside 2NEBRASKA352009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.