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Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 92× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

92×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 92× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Canada Goose In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 19–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 19–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026321648
2027331749
2028331749
2029341850
2030341950

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Canada Goose in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA6172025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA1722025
PoncaNEBRASKA1042019
WashingtonIOWA1022025
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA1012023
HartlandMINNESOTA912017
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA852025
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA802021
WinsideNEBRASKA602003
BeltramiMINNESOTA582025
DawsonMINNESOTA562022
AppletonMINNESOTA502025
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA502025
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA502023
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA472025
LambertMONTANA452025
CourtlandMINNESOTA442025
GlasgowMONTANA442025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA422022
ScrantonIOWA392025
ClareIOWA382019
MccallsburgIOWA372025
Winside 2NEBRASKA352009
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA332023
HuntleyMINNESOTA322008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.