BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Northern Rockies has surged: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

34×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
149Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Northern Rockies: up 34× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 376% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 12–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+376%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 376% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 12–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191128
2026201129
2027201129
2028211229
2029211230

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Canada Goose in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YellowstoneWYOMING22542022
Rock RiverWYOMING4172022
Hayden ValWYOMING3321986
FontenelleWYOMING2522024
Neponset ResUTAH2502017
Baldy MountainIDAHO632015
Mtn ViewWYOMING592024
Hebgen LakeMONTANA492024
SpartaOREGON472001
NaplesIDAHO402024
RandolphUTAH342024
ClarkWYOMING342010
Browns ParkCOLORADO302015
Ne EntranceWYOMING302019
OttoWYOMING272016
HarmonyWYOMING272023
Summit PrOREGON252024
WamsutterWYOMING252005
EtheteWYOMING222021
RawlinsWYOMING222005
BaggsWYOMING212002
CurlewWASHINGTON202013
Malheur Res.OREGON182023
FrannieWYOMING182005
PhilipsburgMONTANA162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.