BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Northern Rockies has surged: up 40× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

40×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
149Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Northern Rockies: up 40× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canada Goose In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 15–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 15–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026211329
2027211429
2028221429
2029221430
2030221530

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Canada Goose in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YellowstoneWYOMING13352025
Rock RiverWYOMING4172022
FontenelleWYOMING3892025
Hayden ValWYOMING3321986
Neponset ResUTAH2502017
BeaverheadMONTANA1332025
CabartonIDAHO1202024
MooseWYOMING952025
Hebgen LakeMONTANA852025
Baldy MountainIDAHO632015
Carter 2WYOMING532025
SpartaOREGON472001
Mtn ViewWYOMING462025
NaplesIDAHO422025
ClarkWYOMING342010
Flamin GorgeWYOMING332025
Browns ParkCOLORADO302015
Ne EntranceWYOMING282024
OttoWYOMING272016
HarmonyWYOMING272023
WamsutterWYOMING252005
RawlinsWYOMING222005
EtheteWYOMING212025
BaggsWYOMING212002
CurlewWASHINGTON202013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.