BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 304% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+304%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 304% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Canada Goose In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 276% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+276%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.96Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 276% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.910.002.0
20260.920.002.0
20270.940.002.0
20280.950.002.0
20290.960.002.0

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Canada Goose in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA422004
HenriettaTEXAS252022
LydiaTEXAS142023
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA122018
BeggsOKLAHOMA82023
Gambill Ref.TEXAS82014
SeldenTEXAS62018
TatumsOKLAHOMA52024
DuncanOKLAHOMA52021
SadlerTEXAS52023
Massey LakeTEXAS42023
CayugaTEXAS42023
RhomeTEXAS32024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA22019
ChoctawOKLAHOMA22021
NobleOKLAHOMA22024
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22006
SkiatookOKLAHOMA22015
Glen RoseTEXAS22016
WeatherfordTEXAS22024
Blue RidgeTEXAS22018
DikeTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.