BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+306%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Canada Goose In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.980.002.1
20271.000.002.1
20281.00.002.1
20291.00.002.1
20301.00.002.1

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Canada Goose in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA422004
WeatherfordTEXAS382025
HenriettaTEXAS252022
LydiaTEXAS152025
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA122018
BeggsOKLAHOMA82023
Massey LakeTEXAS72025
SeldenTEXAS62018
TatumsOKLAHOMA52024
DuncanOKLAHOMA52021
SadlerTEXAS52023
CayugaTEXAS42023
Gambill Ref.TEXAS42025
HeyburnOKLAHOMA32025
RhomeTEXAS32024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA22019
ChoctawOKLAHOMA22021
NobleOKLAHOMA22024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA22015
Blue RidgeTEXAS22018
Glen RoseTEXAS12025
DikeTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.