BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Coastal California has surged: up 100× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

100×Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Coastal California: up 100× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Coastal California is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 4.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Coastal California is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 4.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.83.89.9
20267.04.010
20277.24.110
20287.34.310
20297.54.511

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Canada Goose in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MoragaCALIFORNIA752024
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA602024
CrestonCALIFORNIA512021
HollisterCALIFORNIA442007
HughsonCALIFORNIA402024
OnoCALIFORNIA302011
CoyoteCALIFORNIA302024
RiovistaCALIFORNIA192023
MorenoCALIFORNIA152024
FairfaxCALIFORNIA152024
OrovilleCALIFORNIA122024
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA122023
Gold HillCALIFORNIA112024
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA102014
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA92024
GlennCALIFORNIA82017
WestleyCALIFORNIA82022
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA62022
Harbor LakeCALIFORNIA51991
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA42014
Glen Ellen 2CALIFORNIA42021
CohassetCALIFORNIA32024
FolsomCALIFORNIA32023
SangerCALIFORNIA32024
Glen EllenCALIFORNIA32004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.