BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Coastal California has surged: up 115× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

115×Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Coastal California: up 115× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Canada Goose In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Coastal California is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 4.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Coastal California is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 4.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.04.010
20277.24.210
20287.34.310
20297.54.511
20307.74.711

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Canada Goose in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA602024
MoragaCALIFORNIA572025
CrestonCALIFORNIA512021
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA452025
HollisterCALIFORNIA442007
Red BluffCALIFORNIA342025
CoyoteCALIFORNIA322025
OnoCALIFORNIA302011
Gold HillCALIFORNIA272025
OrovilleCALIFORNIA202025
RiovistaCALIFORNIA192023
MorenoCALIFORNIA152024
FairfaxCALIFORNIA152024
HughsonCALIFORNIA142025
FolsomCALIFORNIA132025
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA122023
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA102014
Glen Ellen 3CALIFORNIA92025
GlennCALIFORNIA82017
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA62022
WestleyCALIFORNIA62025
Harbor LakeCALIFORNIA51991
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA42014
Glen Ellen 2CALIFORNIA42021
CohassetCALIFORNIA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.