BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Great Basin has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

20×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Great Basin: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Great Basin is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 13–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Great Basin is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 13–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221232
2026221232
2027221232
2028231332
2029231333

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Canada Goose in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron SpringsIDAHO6802024
CallaoUTAH5152024
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA2412021
Barnes ValOREGON1751987
LynnUTAH1502023
MerrillOREGON1342022
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA1222019
Gardnerville 2NEVADA1182024
Iron GateCALIFORNIA1072019
Catlow RimOREGON872024
Johnson CanUTAH842018
WagontireOREGON751983
MadelineCALIFORNIA672024
NighthawkWASHINGTON662024
Modoc Point 2OREGON622024
CortezNEVADA602024
PrestonIDAHO522021
Fish LakeOREGON452024
SpringfieldIDAHO402016
SulphurWASHINGTON392014
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA382018
RimrockWASHINGTON382024
Daniels ResIDAHO352019
NewhalemWASHINGTON352019
MercerWASHINGTON352019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.