BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Great Basin has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

18×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Great Basin: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Canada Goose In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Great Basin is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 12–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Great Basin is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 12–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026211131
2027221232
2028221232
2029221232
2030221232

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Canada Goose in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron SpringsIDAHO6802024
CallaoUTAH5492025
Catlow RimOREGON2502025
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA2412021
Barnes ValOREGON1751987
MerrillOREGON1342022
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA1222019
Fish LakeOREGON1152025
IngallsCALIFORNIA1072025
Iron GateCALIFORNIA1072019
Johnson CanUTAH842018
WagontireOREGON751983
MadelineCALIFORNIA702025
Bear RiverUTAH672025
NighthawkWASHINGTON662024
Lapham Res.OREGON622025
PrestonIDAHO522021
LynnUTAH482025
KendallWASHINGTON472025
CortezNEVADA422025
SpringfieldIDAHO402016
SulphurWASHINGTON392014
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA382018
MercerWASHINGTON352019
HackamoreCALIFORNIA322010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.