BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has risen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 110% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.8–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 110% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.8–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.91.56.3
20264.01.66.4
20274.11.76.4
20284.11.76.5
20294.21.86.6

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Canada Goose in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA1312022
SewardNEBRASKA502021
SumnerNEBRASKA462009
NenzelNEBRASKA422024
AlmeriaNEBRASKA332021
BuckeyeKANSAS322018
GoesselKANSAS322017
KenesawNEBRASKA262024
CoatsKANSAS252022
Crescent LkNEBRASKA252013
SargentNEBRASKA252024
AlbertKANSAS202016
BrownleeNEBRASKA202019
RinggoldNEBRASKA182014
BerwetKANSAS172018
ErickOKLAHOMA132024
WellingtonKANSAS122024
SurpriseNEBRASKA122022
JohnstownNEBRASKA122014
Red CloudNEBRASKA122019
WakitaOKLAHOMA122015
HollenbergKANSAS92022
PetersburgNEBRASKA92021
CharlieTEXAS92022
St JohnKANSAS82017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.