BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 119× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

119×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 119× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 3.9–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 3.9–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.43.57.3
20265.53.67.3
20275.63.77.4
20285.73.87.5
20295.83.97.6

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Canada Goose in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DulceNEW-MEXICO2232024
Dixie NfUTAH1712024
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO1192024
Douglas PassCOLORADO1052022
TarryallCOLORADO522023
HeeneyCOLORADO482019
RadiumCOLORADO412004
PiedraCOLORADO402024
CortezCOLORADO332008
AltonUTAH322019
Rifle FallsCOLORADO252021
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO242016
Alton 2UTAH242024
GuffeyCOLORADO222024
Cortez 2COLORADO222017
Stillwater PassCOLORADO212009
Guanella PasCOLORADO192008
PowderhornCOLORADO182023
Moon LakeUTAH181997
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO172023
BicknellUTAH172019
Lizard Head PassCOLORADO162023
FalfaCOLORADO152024
Groundhog RsCOLORADO142022
KamasUTAH142023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.