BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Connecticut has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-58%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has fallen sharply in Connecticut: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Connecticut is projected to rise about 98% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±163.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+98%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±163.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Connecticut is projected to rise about 98% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±163.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.20.0010
20274.20.0010
20284.20.0010
20294.20.0010
20304.20.0010

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Canada Goose in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buckingham3120221990
Woodstock1420071972
Mid Haddam1420251983
E Hartland1019921973
Danbury1020231971
Long Hill720181974
Uncasville620132003
Southington520241976
Sherman420161976
Warren420101976
New Hartford319871973
Mystic120231985
Westbrook120251992
Willimantic120171971
No Woodbury120151968
Greenwich120181974
New Hartford120071995
Woodstock 2120242021
Warren 2120252025
Granby120251988

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.