BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Nevada has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

14×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Nevada: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Nevada is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.00–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Nevada is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.00–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025110.0024
2026110.0024
2027110.0024
2028120.0025
2029120.0025

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Canada Goose in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ruby Valley 224120212004
Gardnerville 211820242013
Cortez6020242017
Bald Mtn.1820241992
Sand Pass1320071994
Majors Place1320191991
Nixon1020211991
Fallon820231992
Gardnerville720121992
Toiyabe Nf620182018
Eureka620112011
Hiko620232007
Piute Mdws420212021
Dobbin Creek420171971
Virgin Creek320181995
Darroughs Hot Spgs320242024
Midas220041994
Carson River220022002
Walker Can219711971
Minerva220141988
Ranchogrande120141991
Ruby Valley120001999
Chimney Res.120242017

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.