BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Kentucky has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

22×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Kentucky: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Kentucky is projected to rise about 95% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Kentucky is projected to rise about 95% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.91.46.3
20274.01.56.4
20284.11.66.5
20294.21.76.6
20304.31.86.7

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Canada Goose in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Johnsonville2620212003
Buena Vista2320162003
Eastview1620251977
Joy1520232005
Brownsville1020232023
Sulphur Lick1020241999
Lovelacevile820242008
Keysburg820251999
Mcbrayer720221990
Hudson720252006
Plum620232009
Carter520162006
Kings Mtn520142014
Hustonville520252003
Levee 2520192008
Hegira420182008
Apex420252009
Morganfield420242022
Mckee320252025
Merrimac320242001
Porter320151998
Bays Fork320192004
Lebanon Junction320252001
Cedar Grove220211990
Dixon220242008

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.