BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Kentucky has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

22×Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Kentucky: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Kentucky is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.9–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Kentucky is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.9–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.01.56.4
20264.11.66.5
20274.11.76.6
20284.21.86.7
20294.31.96.7

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Canada Goose in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Johnsonville2620212003
Buena Vista2320162003
Lebanon Junction2220242001
Joy1520232005
Eastview1220241977
Brownsville1020232023
Sulphur Lick1020241999
Lovelacevile820242008
Pleasurevill820242000
Hudson820232006
Mcbrayer720221990
Plum620232009
Carter520162006
Kings Mtn520142014
Levee 2520192008
Keysburg420211999
Hegira420182008
Sewell Shop420191993
Morganfield420242022
Merrimac320242001
Porter320151998
Bays Fork320192004
Cedar Grove220211990
Dixon220242008
Apex220092009

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.