BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Alaska has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+137%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Alaska: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Alaska is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.14–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Alaska is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.14–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.90.075.6
20262.90.085.7
20272.90.105.7
20282.90.125.7
20292.90.145.7

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Canada Goose in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Copper River10020111993
Cordova4120241983
Nabesna Road3020062006
Happy Valley3020241993
Cottonwood2319891988
Koyukuk Riv.2220011993
Red Dog2220241995
Chena Hot Sp1819861986
Kuiu Island1120102010
Cape Nome1120241993
Juneau1019941985
Kotzebue1020232001
Ruby920022002
Teller920171993
Kodiak 2820182006
Selawik (Short)819871987
Hyder820091994
Kugarak (Short)719871986
Slana620241994
Chistochina620231990
Nome620121993
Murphy Dome620092009
Anvik River620221998
Chichagof Is620212011
Northway520192013

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.