BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Mississippi has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-52%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has fallen sharply in Mississippi: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Mississippi is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Mississippi is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.007.6
20272.20.007.5
20282.20.007.5
20292.10.007.4
20302.10.007.4

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Canada Goose in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cybur4320192008
Eagle Lake4020252022
Tippo1920091998
Grenada Lake1920192014
Isola1620001990
Olive Branch 21420222016
Trace North1220142009
Necaise1120222009
Cockrum1020222013
Trace Lee1020182014
Dundee920192001
Trace Hinds920162016
Shelby920092009
Benton820251997
Latimer820191997
Benndale720212021
Vicksburg Np620212021
Trace Chickasaw520232023
Corinth420162016
Tallahatchie320231996
Duck Hill320241998
Forest320242024
Trace Madison320192015
Moon320181996
Macon220152015

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.