BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasWaterfowl

Canada Goose in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+53%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has risen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Canada Goose In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.580.001.3
20270.570.001.3
20280.570.001.3
20290.570.001.3
20300.570.001.3

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Canada Goose in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BlancoOKLAHOMA322002
Smyrna 2TEXAS232023
TroutLOUISIANA202000
PhillipsOKLAHOMA182005
HopeARKANSAS122024
MatoyOKLAHOMA102025
HavanaARKANSAS82021
McalesterOKLAHOMA81990
StarkARKANSAS72025
Mount UnionLOUISIANA72023
IndianolaOKLAHOMA72025
Locust BayouARKANSAS62022
Chandler 2TEXAS62018
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA42021
Liberty HillTEXAS32023
StampsARKANSAS22024
Coal HillARKANSAS22019
MassardARKANSAS22022
SpringhillARKANSAS22021
Poyen 2ARKANSAS22025
EvelynLOUISIANA22024
PocolaOKLAHOMA22016
MortonTEXAS22025
AshdownARKANSAS12014
SimsARKANSAS12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.