BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWaterfowl

Canada Goose in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 50× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

50×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 50× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Canada Goose In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.1–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.1–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.1–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025148.220
2026148.420
2027148.620
2028158.821
2029159.121

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Canada Goose in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA1652024
Holleyville 2DELAWARE1462024
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY972024
MardelaMARYLAND922019
HarringtonDELAWARE732024
HuntingtonNEW-YORK672023
WalkersVIRGINIA552023
Forest GroveMARYLAND512023
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS472024
HarmonyMARYLAND442017
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND412010
PomfretMARYLAND402024
NottinghamMARYLAND402024
Jones BeachNEW-YORK402013
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA402018
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY382009
MadisonMARYLAND372024
PomonkeyMARYLAND362024
HolleyvilleDELAWARE332004
Kittery PtMAINE332024
MiltonDELAWARE322016
Tall TimbersMARYLAND322014
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT312022
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE312023
WesthamptonNEW-YORK312024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.