BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+148%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.005.9
20262.30.005.9
20272.30.005.9
20282.30.005.9
20292.30.005.9

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Canada Goose in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DellARKANSAS702024
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI322024
South BendARKANSAS312019
DeventerMISSOURI202022
TippoMISSISSIPPI192009
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE172012
IsolaMISSISSIPPI162000
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS152024
BlodgettMISSOURI122018
WilsonARKANSAS112024
DelhiLOUISIANA92019
DundeeMISSISSIPPI92019
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI92009
SaffellARKANSAS72019
GonzalesLOUISIANA72013
Baton RougeLOUISIANA72024
EudoraARKANSAS62010
PawpawTENNESSEE62012
HughesARKANSAS52021
GillettARKANSAS52016
EnglandARKANSAS32024
River RoadLOUISIANA32015
MoonMISSISSIPPI32018
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI32023
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.