BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+128%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Canada Goose In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.005.8
20272.30.005.8
20282.30.005.8
20292.30.005.8
20302.30.005.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Canada Goose in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DellARKANSAS702024
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI402025
South BendARKANSAS312019
Baton RougeLOUISIANA272025
TippoMISSISSIPPI192009
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE172012
IsolaMISSISSIPPI162000
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS152024
BlodgettMISSOURI122018
WilsonARKANSAS112024
DelhiLOUISIANA92019
DundeeMISSISSIPPI92019
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI92009
DeventerMISSOURI82025
SaffellARKANSAS72019
GonzalesLOUISIANA72013
EudoraARKANSAS62010
PawpawTENNESSEE62012
HughesARKANSAS52021
EnglandARKANSAS52025
GillettARKANSAS52016
UlmARKANSAS42025
River RoadLOUISIANA32015
MoonMISSISSIPPI32018
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.