BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canvasback Population Analysis

AnatidaeWaterfowlAythya valisineria

Canvasback has surged: up 328% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+328%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
189RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Canvasback

The Canvasback (Aythya valisineria) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 189 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 16 states, most concentrated in the Prairie Potholes.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Canvasback TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canvasback. See the full index history below.

Canvasback Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.01–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.01–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.010.12
20270.070.010.13
20280.070.010.13
20290.070.010.13
20300.070.010.13

Where the Canvasback Is Detected

BBS routes recording Canvasback, sized by most recent count.

Canvasback Population Trend by State

Canvasback population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska26×20008
California-31%197410
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a7
Idahoinsufficient datan/a7
Kansasinsufficient datan/a1
Minnesota-73%19808
Montana-27%197836
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a7
Nevada-90%19808
New Yorkinsufficient datan/a1
North Dakota+201%196936
Oregon+456%197611
South Dakota+55%197019
Utah-28%19947
Washington-49%19867
Wyoming+152%198916

Canvasback Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Canvasback population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 221×20023
Great Basin+194%197339
Northern Rockies-58%198125
Prairie Potholes+137%196963
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-88%19906
Badlands and Prairies-18%198232

Canvasback Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 328% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.