BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Alaska has surged: up 535% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

+535%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canvasback Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canvasback has surged in Alaska: up 535% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

Canvasback Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Alaska is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±794.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±794.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Alaska is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±794.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.000.76
20260.310.000.77
20270.320.000.78
20280.330.000.79
20290.340.000.80

Canvasback Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Canvasback in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kotzebue3920242001
Slana420142013
Kotzebue (Short)419941994
Copper River220032003
Kanuti Lake220122012
Cape Nome120122005
Nicholai Sl120021997
Happy Valley120002000

Canvasback Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.