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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canvasback Population Trend in Alaska

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Canvasback in Alaska has surged: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 2000.

26×Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canvasback Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canvasback in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Canvasback Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Alaska is projected to fall about 67% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±612%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±612%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Alaska is projected to fall about 67% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±612%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.590.001.4
20270.610.001.4
20280.640.001.4
20290.660.001.4
20300.680.001.5

Canvasback Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Canvasback in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kotzebue12020252001
Slana420142013
Kotzebue (Short)419941994
Copper River220032003
Kanuti Lake220122012
Cape Nome120122005
Nicholai Sl120021997
Happy Valley120002000

Canvasback Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.