Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Canvasback Population Trend in Alaska
Canvasback in Alaska has surged: up 535% on the route-weighted index since 2000.
+535%Since 2000
8Routes In State
25Years
Notable Canvasback Trends in Alaska
long arc increasecomputed index
Canvasback has surged in Alaska: up 535% on the route-weighted index since 2000.
Canvasback Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Alaska is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±794.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-42%Change by 2029
0.34Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8095% range
±794.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| 2026 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| 2027 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| 2028 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| 2029 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
Canvasback Survey Routes in Alaska
| Kotzebue | 39 | 2024 | 2001 |
| Slana | 4 | 2014 | 2013 |
| Kotzebue (Short) | 4 | 1994 | 1994 |
| Copper River | 2 | 2003 | 2003 |
| Kanuti Lake | 2 | 2012 | 2012 |
| Cape Nome | 1 | 2012 | 2005 |
| Nicholai Sl | 1 | 2002 | 1997 |
| Happy Valley | 1 | 2000 | 2000 |
Canvasback Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.