BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Utah has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+173%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canvasback Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canvasback has surged in Utah: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Canvasback Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Utah is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±568.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±568.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Utah is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±568.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.59
20260.240.000.59
20270.240.000.60
20280.250.000.60
20290.250.000.60

Canvasback Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Canvasback in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Randolph720241992
Callao620221992
Neponset Res520171995
Woodruff220242017
Moon Lake220002000
Saleratus Cr120051998
Bear River120052005

Canvasback Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.