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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canvasback Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Utah has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

-28%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canvasback Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canvasback in Utah. See the full index history below.

Canvasback Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±550.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±550.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±550.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.220.000.57
20270.220.000.57
20280.210.000.57
20290.210.000.56
20300.210.000.56

Canvasback Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Canvasback in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset Res520171995
Woodruff220242017
Moon Lake220002000
Callao220251992
Saleratus Cr120051998
Bear River120052005
Randolph120251992

Canvasback Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.