BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canvasback Population Trend in California

All statesWaterfowl

Canvasback in California has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-31%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canvasback Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canvasback in California. See the full index history below.

Canvasback Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±130.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.21
20270.070.000.21
20280.070.000.21
20290.070.000.21
20300.070.000.21

Canvasback Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Canvasback in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dorris1420171973
Likely1020151973
Ingalls719811981
Macdoel319891987
Tranquillity319721972
Honey Lake220252025
Nubieber219851985
Clear Lk Res219991999
Tehama119841984
Iron Gate119981998

Canvasback Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.