BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-73%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canvasback Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canvasback has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Canvasback Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±300.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±300.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±300.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.080.000.27
20240.080.000.27
20250.080.000.27
20260.080.000.27
20270.080.000.26

Canvasback Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Canvasback in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Courtland1219911991
Tenney420161992
Ashby320081997
Dawson219741974
Greenbush219961996
Chokio220221978
Redwood Fall119801980
Glyndon120171978

Canvasback Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.