BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canvasback Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Wyoming has surged: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+152%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canvasback Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canvasback has surged in Wyoming: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Canvasback Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Wyoming is projected to rise about 139% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±176.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+139%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±176.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Wyoming is projected to rise about 139% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±176.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.000.40
20270.170.000.41
20280.170.000.41
20290.170.000.41
20300.180.000.41

Canvasback Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Canvasback in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rock River2120222016
Bucknum2020002000
Lovell420022002
Carter 2420252018
Clark320192019
Otto320062006
Bill320002000
Harmony320221990
Recluse220162016
Brookhurst220161983
Kaycee120252025
Yellowstone120032003
Walcott120241992
Fontenelle120252017
Lamont120251987
Mammoth120082008

Canvasback Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.