BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canvasback Population Trend in Montana

All statesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Montana has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-27%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canvasback Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canvasback in Montana. See the full index history below.

Canvasback Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Montana is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Montana is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.62
20260.200.000.62
20270.200.000.62
20280.200.000.62
20290.200.000.62

Canvasback Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Canvasback in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Westby1220212021
Highwood820141994
Wolf Point820232023
Augusta620141978
Ester Lake620232016
Cleveland420121982
Glasgow420122012
Saco420192019
Coleman Coulee420242024
Pablo Res.420072007
Redstone320022002
Ingomar319931993
St Mary219811981
Virgelle219961996
Harlem219931990
Malta220111976
Great Falls219791979
Leroy220142014
Roy220082008
Jordan219871987
Circle220191983
Two Dot220242000
Beaverhead220191975
Gildford220232023
Chinook220232016

Canvasback Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotanebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.