BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canvasback Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Oregon has surged: up 456% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+456%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canvasback Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canvasback in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Canvasback Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±619.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±619.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±619.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.003.0
20260.000.003.0
20270.000.003.0
20280.000.003.0
20290.000.003.0

Canvasback Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Canvasback in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warner Vally6020241994
Princeton1019841979
Catlow Rim520172017
Sheaville420152015
Modoc Point420181971
Merrill220022002
Clover Creek219891989
Malheur Nwr219931990
Blizzard Gap220161985
Harney Lake119991999
Fish Lake120011986

Canvasback Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.