BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Oregon has surged: up 461% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+461%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canvasback Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canvasback has surged in Oregon: up 461% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Canvasback Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±619%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±619%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±619%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.003.0
20260.000.003.0
20270.000.003.0
20280.000.003.0
20290.000.003.0

Canvasback Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Canvasback in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warner Vally6020241994
Princeton1019841979
Catlow Rim520172017
Sheaville420152015
Modoc Point420181971
Merrill220022002
Clover Creek219891989
Malheur Nwr219931990
Blizzard Gap220161985
Harney Lake119991999
Fish Lake120011986

Canvasback Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.