Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback Population Trend in North Dakota

Canvasback in North Dakota has surged: up 254% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Notable Canvasback Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

Canvasback Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in North Dakota is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.95–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in North Dakota is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.95–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.784.3
20262.60.824.4
20272.60.864.4
20282.70.914.4
20292.70.954.5

Canvasback Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Canvasback in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead Lk3120241980
Wild Rose2020241982
Sheyenne Lk1420241980
Lakota 21420242010
Buchanan1220241967
Gorham1020161986
Niles920241992
Bowman820241978
Webster720241993
Rolla620231969
Denbigh620241973
Cedar Creek620091997
Lake George520191967
Powers Lake420231982
Sydney319811974
Zap320192019
Montpelier320221996
Danzig220121982
Cooperstown220231970
Regan220222013
Dunn Center219821982
Loraine219951985
Bentley220232011
Braddock220211989
Forman120241978

Canvasback Population Trend in Other States

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.