BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Canvasback in North Dakota has surged: up 254% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+254%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canvasback Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canvasback has surged in North Dakota: up 254% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Canvasback Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in North Dakota is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.95–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.95–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in North Dakota is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.95–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.784.3
20262.60.824.4
20272.60.864.4
20282.70.914.4
20292.70.954.5

Canvasback Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Canvasback in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead Lk3120241980
Wild Rose2020241982
Sheyenne Lk1420241980
Lakota 21420242010
Buchanan1220241967
Gorham1020161986
Niles920241992
Bowman820241978
Webster720241993
Rolla620231969
Denbigh620241973
Cedar Creek620091997
Lake George520191967
Powers Lake420231982
Sydney319811974
Zap320192019
Montpelier320221996
Danzig220121982
Cooperstown220231970
Regan220222013
Dunn Center219821982
Loraine219951985
Bentley220232011
Braddock220211989
Forman120241978

Canvasback Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-yorkoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.