BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Canvasback in South Dakota has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+55%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canvasback Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canvasback has risen sharply in South Dakota: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canvasback Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in South Dakota is projected to rise about 34% by 2027 — from 0.06 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in South Dakota is projected to rise about 34% by 2027 — from 0.06 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.100.000.58
20240.090.000.58
20250.090.000.57
20260.080.000.57
20270.080.000.57

Canvasback Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Canvasback in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ottumwa1619931993
Long Lake820191970
Wilmot519691969
Crow Creek420192010
Forbes420192019
Lennox219841984
Veblen220011979
Gettysburg220192019
Laplant219991999
Fort Pierre220212021
Tripp120172017
White Lake120001967
Pioneer119951993
Cottonwood120222022
Britton120221978
Owanka120142014
Harding119851977
Maurine120142014
Turton120192019

Canvasback Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaoregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.