BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Northern Rockies has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+74%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canvasback has risen sharply in Northern Rockies: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Canvasback In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 145% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±501%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+145%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±501%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 145% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±501%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.39
20260.180.000.39
20270.190.000.39
20280.190.000.40
20290.190.000.40

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Canvasback in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rock RiverWYOMING212022
RandolphUTAH72024
AugustaMONTANA62014
Neponset ResUTAH52017
Pablo Res.MONTANA42007
LovellWYOMING42002
OttoWYOMING32006
ClarkWYOMING32019
HarmonyWYOMING32022
St MaryMONTANA21981
BeaverheadMONTANA22019
Clover CreekOREGON21989
WoodruffUTAH22024
Twin LakesWASHINGTON21988
FontenelleWYOMING22022
Browns ParkCOLORADO12005
CascadeIDAHO11975
KalispellMONTANA12015
Red RockMONTANA11981
Saleratus CrUTAH12005
MammothWYOMING12008
LamontWYOMING11996
WalcottWYOMING12024
Carter 2WYOMING12024
YellowstoneWYOMING12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.