BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Northern Rockies has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+74%Since 1981
25Routes In Region
41Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Canvasback has risen sharply in Northern Rockies: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 145% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±501%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+145%Change by 2029
0.19Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.4095% range
±501%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.180.000.39
20260.180.000.39
20270.190.000.39
20280.190.000.40
20290.190.000.40

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Canvasback in Northern Rockies.
Rock RiverWYOMING212022
RandolphUTAH72024
AugustaMONTANA62014
Neponset ResUTAH52017
Pablo Res.MONTANA42007
LovellWYOMING42002
OttoWYOMING32006
ClarkWYOMING32019
HarmonyWYOMING32022
St MaryMONTANA21981
BeaverheadMONTANA22019
Clover CreekOREGON21989
WoodruffUTAH22024
Twin LakesWASHINGTON21988
FontenelleWYOMING22022
Browns ParkCOLORADO12005
CascadeIDAHO11975
KalispellMONTANA12015
Red RockMONTANA11981
Saleratus CrUTAH12005
MammothWYOMING12008
LamontWYOMING11996
WalcottWYOMING12024
Carter 2WYOMING12024
YellowstoneWYOMING12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.