BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canvasback In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+137%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canvasback has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Canvasback In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 209% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.37–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+209%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 209% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.37–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.302.1
20271.20.322.1
20281.20.332.1
20291.20.352.1
20301.30.372.1

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Canvasback in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA142024
CourtlandMINNESOTA121991
WestbyMONTANA122021
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA122024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA92024
Wolf PointMONTANA82023
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA82019
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA72024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA72025
Ester LakeMONTANA62023
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA62023
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA62024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA52025
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA52025
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA51969
TenneyMINNESOTA42016
ClevelandMONTANA42012
GlasgowMONTANA42012
SacoMONTANA42019
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA42025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA42025
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA42019
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA42019
RedstoneMONTANA32002
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA31981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.