BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+180%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canvasback has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Canvasback In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.43–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.43–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.362.1
20261.20.382.1
20271.30.402.1
20281.30.412.2
20291.30.432.2

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Canvasback in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA312024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA202024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA142024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA142024
CourtlandMINNESOTA121991
WestbyMONTANA122021
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA122024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA92024
Wolf PointMONTANA82023
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA82019
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA72024
Ester LakeMONTANA62023
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA62023
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA62024
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA52019
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA51969
TenneyMINNESOTA42016
ClevelandMONTANA42012
GlasgowMONTANA42012
SacoMONTANA42019
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA42023
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA42019
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA42019
RedstoneMONTANA32002
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA31981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.