BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+180%Since 1969
63Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Canvasback has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.43–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.43–2.295% range
±45.3%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.20.362.1
20261.20.382.1
20271.30.402.1
20281.30.412.2
20291.30.432.2

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Canvasback in Prairie Potholes.
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA312024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA202024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA142024
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA142024
CourtlandMINNESOTA121991
WestbyMONTANA122021
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA122024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA92024
Wolf PointMONTANA82023
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA82019
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA72024
Ester LakeMONTANA62023
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA62023
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA62024
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA52019
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA51969
TenneyMINNESOTA42016
ClevelandMONTANA42012
GlasgowMONTANA42012
SacoMONTANA42019
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA42023
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA42019
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA42019
RedstoneMONTANA32002
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA31981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.