BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canvasback In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Waterfowl

Canvasback in BCR 2 has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 2002.

21×Since 2002TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canvasback has surged in BCR 2: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 2002.

Canvasback In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 69% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±523.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±523.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 69% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±523.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.30.0013
20275.50.0013
20285.70.0013
20295.90.0014
20306.20.0014

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Canvasback in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KotzebueALASKA1202025
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA41994
Cape NomeALASKA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.