BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Waterfowl

Canvasback in BCR 2 has surged: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 2002.

+306%Since 2002
3Routes In Region
23Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Canvasback has surged in BCR 2: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 2002.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±683.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029
2.4Projected 2029 index
0.00–6.095% range
±683.2%Backtest error
19942029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.10.005.7
20262.20.005.8
20272.30.005.8
20282.30.005.9
20292.40.006.0

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Canvasback in BCR 2.
KotzebueALASKA392024
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA41994
Cape NomeALASKA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.