BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Canvasback in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-3%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canvasback in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Canvasback In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.34
20260.130.000.34
20270.130.000.34
20280.130.000.34
20290.130.000.34

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Canvasback in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BucknumWYOMING202000
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA161993
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA102016
HighwoodMONTANA82014
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA82024
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA62009
IngomarMONTANA31993
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA32019
BillWYOMING32000
LeroyMONTANA22014
RoyMONTANA22008
JordanMONTANA21987
CircleMONTANA22019
Two DotMONTANA22024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA22019
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA21982
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA22023
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA21999
Fort PierreSOUTH-DAKOTA22021
RecluseWYOMING22016
BrusettMONTANA12023
SavageMONTANA11999
ShawmutMONTANA12024
WebsterMONTANA12019
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.