BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Canvasback in Great Basin has surged: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+205%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canvasback has surged in Great Basin: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Canvasback In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Great Basin is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±120.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Great Basin is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.001.1
20260.000.001.1
20270.000.001.1
20280.000.001.1
20290.000.001.1

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Canvasback in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warner VallyOREGON602024
DorrisCALIFORNIA142017
LikelyCALIFORNIA102015
PrincetonOREGON101984
BrewsterWASHINGTON82012
IngallsCALIFORNIA71981
FallonNEVADA71994
CallaoUTAH62022
Catlow RimOREGON52017
Dobbin CreekNEVADA42009
Bald Mtn.NEVADA42015
Modoc PointOREGON42018
SheavilleOREGON42015
MacdoelCALIFORNIA31989
WilburWASHINGTON31988
PotholesWASHINGTON31997
NubieberCALIFORNIA21985
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA21999
SpringfieldIDAHO21987
Blackft ResIDAHO22018
Iron SpringsIDAHO22024
CortezNEVADA22024
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA22017
Humboldt NfNEVADA21993
Virgin CreekNEVADA22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.