BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canvasback In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Canvasback in Great Basin has surged: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+205%Since 1973
38Routes In Region
51Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Canvasback has surged in Great Basin: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canvasback in Great Basin is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.195% range
±120.3%Backtest error
19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.010.001.1
20260.000.001.1
20270.000.001.1
20280.000.001.1
20290.000.001.1

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Canvasback in Great Basin.
Warner VallyOREGON602024
DorrisCALIFORNIA142017
LikelyCALIFORNIA102015
PrincetonOREGON101984
BrewsterWASHINGTON82012
IngallsCALIFORNIA71981
FallonNEVADA71994
CallaoUTAH62022
Catlow RimOREGON52017
Dobbin CreekNEVADA42009
Bald Mtn.NEVADA42015
Modoc PointOREGON42018
SheavilleOREGON42015
MacdoelCALIFORNIA31989
WilburWASHINGTON31988
PotholesWASHINGTON31997
NubieberCALIFORNIA21985
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA21999
SpringfieldIDAHO21987
Blackft ResIDAHO22018
Iron SpringsIDAHO22024
CortezNEVADA22024
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA22017
Humboldt NfNEVADA21993
Virgin CreekNEVADA22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.