BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruddy Duck

AnatidaeWaterfowlOxyura jamaicensis

Ruddy Duck has surged: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+152%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
355RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Ruddy Duck

The Ruddy Duck (Oxyura jamaicensis) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 355 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 25 states, most concentrated in the Prairie Potholes.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Ruddy Duck TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has surged in surveyed states: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ruddy Duck Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.09–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.09–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.080.36
20260.220.080.37
20270.230.080.37
20280.230.080.37
20290.230.090.37

Where the Ruddy Duck Is Detected

BBS routes recording Ruddy Duck, sized by most recent count.

Ruddy Duck Population Trend by State

Ruddy Duck population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-72%19975
California+42%197250
Colorado+120%197729
Idaho-74%197110
Illinoisinsufficient datan/a1
Indianainsufficient datan/a1
Iowainsufficient datan/a2
Kansas-93%19705
Michiganinsufficient datan/a1
Minnesota-38%197220
Montana+192%197435
Nebraska-54%198010
Nevada+115%19729
New Mexico-78%197810
New Yorkinsufficient datan/a1
North Dakota+240%196933
Ohioinsufficient datan/a1
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a2
Oregon+78%197416
South Dakota-51%197030
Texas-25%199217
Utah+153%199420
Washington-68%198122
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a4
Wyoming-24%197721

Ruddy Duck Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Ruddy Duck population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-63%19774
Great Basin+134%197166
Northern Rockies+278%197832
Prairie Potholes+154%196970
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+722%197334
Badlands and Prairies+115%197137
Shortgrass Prairie-66%197823
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-95%197014
Prairie Hardwood Transition-42%196914
Coastal California-44%197331
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-77%19777
Gulf Coastal Prairie-76%20006

Ruddy Duck Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 152% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.