BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruddy Duck In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-58%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Ruddy Duck In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±192.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±192.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±192.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.43
20270.110.000.43
20280.110.000.42
20290.110.000.42
20300.110.000.42

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KiowaCOLORADO432015
Wildhorse LCOLORADO242015
NunnCOLORADO82017
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO81978
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO82007
HookerOKLAHOMA82025
PritchettCOLORADO62008
Last ChanceCOLORADO41987
JulesburgCOLORADO42021
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA42019
CactusTEXAS42023
LamarCOLORADO32021
FlemingCOLORADO21977
AmherstCOLORADO22011
NeegrandeCOLORADO21997
DoughertyTEXAS22007
ClaytonvilleTEXAS22022
DalhartTEXAS22016
GroverCOLORADO12014
FlaglerCOLORADO12006
Arsenal 2COLORADO12025
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO11978
WakaTEXAS11997
FloydadaTEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.