BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruddy Duck In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-66%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Ruddy Duck In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 100% by 2028 — from 0.05 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±224.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±224.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 100% by 2028 — from 0.05 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±224.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.110.000.44
20250.110.000.43
20260.110.000.43
20270.110.000.43
20280.110.000.43

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KiowaCOLORADO432015
Wildhorse LCOLORADO242015
NunnCOLORADO82017
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO81978
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO82007
PritchettCOLORADO62008
Last ChanceCOLORADO41987
JulesburgCOLORADO42021
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA42019
CactusTEXAS42023
LamarCOLORADO32021
FlemingCOLORADO21977
AmherstCOLORADO22011
NeegrandeCOLORADO21997
HookerOKLAHOMA22005
DoughertyTEXAS22007
ClaytonvilleTEXAS22022
DalhartTEXAS22016
GroverCOLORADO12014
FlaglerCOLORADO12006
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO11978
WakaTEXAS11997
FloydadaTEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.