BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruddy Duck In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Great Basin has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+154%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has surged in Great Basin: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Ruddy Duck In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Great Basin is projected to rise about 75% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Great Basin is projected to rise about 75% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.002.8
20270.780.002.8
20280.760.002.8
20290.750.002.8
20300.730.002.8

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Virgin CreekNEVADA282018
Catlow RimOREGON202025
DorrisCALIFORNIA142019
BentonCALIFORNIA112025
Fish LakeOREGON112023
GoshenUTAH102006
Bear RiverUTAH102024
TonasketWASHINGTON102017
WilburWASHINGTON102005
Bald Mtn.NEVADA92025
PrincetonOREGON91983
Blizzard GapOREGON92023
LikelyCALIFORNIA72025
Dobbin CreekNEVADA62017
BrewsterWASHINGTON62018
MadelineCALIFORNIA52024
Iron SpringsIDAHO52024
IngallsCALIFORNIA41994
MacdoelCALIFORNIA41995
Iron GateCALIFORNIA42008
Cedar HillIDAHO42015
CortezNEVADA42025
SheavilleOREGON42013
Gold HillUTAH42015
KeystoneWASHINGTON42012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.