BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Utah has surged: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+153%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruddy Duck Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has surged in Utah: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Ruddy Duck Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Utah is projected to rise about 410% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±282%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+410%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±282%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Utah is projected to rise about 410% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±282%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.000.68
20260.340.000.69
20270.340.000.69
20280.340.000.69
20290.350.000.69

Ruddy Duck Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Saleratus Cr1320181997
Neponset Res1120181999
Goshen1020061999
Vernal620122008
Main Canyon620221987
Dixie Nf520191996
Bear River420231993
Gold Hill420152015
Alton320111998
Salt Springs220041993
Lynn220021998
M Warner Res220242001
Callao220241995
Hatch220032003
Bicknell220081997
Grizzly Rdge119981997
Navajo Lake120172017
Boulder120061994
Randolph119961996
Delta120232003

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexaswashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.