BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Oregon has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+78%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruddy Duck Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has surged in Oregon: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Ruddy Duck Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Oregon is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+89%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Oregon is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.000.77
20260.210.000.77
20270.210.000.77
20280.200.000.77
20290.200.000.77

Ruddy Duck Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish Lake1120231972
Princeton919831978
Blizzard Gap920231984
Madras620222001
Catlow Rim520242012
Sheaville420132013
Lone Rock320152015
Warner Vally320241994
Bly 2220192010
Adair220041974
Merrill220132013
Deschutes220242019
Modoc Point220181973
Zumwalt119981998
Lapham Res.120022002
Chinchalo120071999

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.