BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Arizona

All statesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Arizona has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

+1%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruddy Duck Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruddy Duck in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Ruddy Duck Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Arizona is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.66 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±478.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±478.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Arizona is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.66 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±478.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.310.001.1
20270.320.001.1
20280.320.001.1
20290.320.001.1
20300.320.001.1

Ruddy Duck Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpine2720251993
Florence519721972
Araby220231998
Willow Beach 2120212018
Ajo120012001

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.