BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Arizona

All statesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

-72%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruddy Duck Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

Ruddy Duck Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Arizona is projected to rise about 106% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±597.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+106%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±597.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Arizona is projected to rise about 106% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±597.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.260.001.1
20250.260.001.1
20260.260.001.1
20270.260.001.1
20280.260.001.1

Ruddy Duck Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Florence519721972
Alpine320231993
Araby220231998
Willow Beach 2120212018
Ajo120012001

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.