BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Washington

All statesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Washington has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-68%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruddy Duck Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has fallen sharply in Washington: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Ruddy Duck Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Washington is projected to rise about 130% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±940%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+130%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±940%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Washington is projected to rise about 130% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±940%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.001.6
20260.210.001.6
20270.190.001.6
20280.180.001.6
20290.160.001.6

Ruddy Duck Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonasket1020171983
Wilbur1020051984
Brewster620181980
Keystone420122012
Othello319911989
Chewelah220161997
L Pend O Nwr220241996
Harrington220012001
Reardan220141998
Omak Creek220242007
Laurier220172013
Moses Coulee220232002
Warm Beach119931993
Turnbull Nwr120181993
Moses Lake120221979
Columbia Nwr120061992
Wapato119951994
Snowden119911991
Twin Lakes119971988
Ewan119991999
Malden120072004
Odessa120012001

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.