BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-54%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruddy Duck Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Ruddy Duck Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±217.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.62
20260.200.000.61
20270.190.000.61
20280.190.000.61
20290.190.000.61

Ruddy Duck Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brownlee1920162004
Pine Ridge420192003
Swan Lake420191999
Crescent Lk220161980
Stratton220152015
Piester Lake220001977
Kennedy220162015
Gordon120151996
Nenzel120192018
Wheeler Co120241982

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.