BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in New Mexico has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-78%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruddy Duck Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has collapsed in New Mexico: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Ruddy Duck Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in New Mexico is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±130%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in New Mexico is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.38
20260.070.000.38
20270.070.000.38
20280.070.000.38
20290.070.000.37

Ruddy Duck Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grenville819781978
Maxwell820072007
Dulce620242001
San Antonio519741974
Capulin219931993
Angel Fire 2220172005
Crownpoint119701970
Laborcita120101994
Wagon Mound119781978
Angel Fire119981995

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.