BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-59%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruddy Duck Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Ruddy Duck Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±274.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±274.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±274.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.52
20270.100.000.51
20280.100.000.51
20290.100.000.50
20300.090.000.50

Ruddy Duck Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Princeton520132013
Minnetonka420021977
Chokio420191971
Tenney420141978
Glenwood320051993
Hartland220041980
Big Stone220112001
Osseo219671967
Knapp220041972
Glyndon220001998
Fairmont220032003
Le Center219991999
Bagley220022002
Sherburne Nr119911990
Courtland120251978
Dawson120132003
Appleton120111985
Gluek120042004
Mille Lacs119791979
Wylie119951995

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.