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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Kansas has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-92%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruddy Duck Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has collapsed in Kansas: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ruddy Duck Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±784.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±784.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Kansas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±784.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.85
20270.000.000.85
20280.000.000.85
20290.000.000.85
20300.000.000.85

Ruddy Duck Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hopewell320092009
Wreford220192019
Albert220251967
Phillipsburg119851985
Logan119801980

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowamichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.