BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Nevada has surged: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+115%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruddy Duck Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has surged in Nevada: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Ruddy Duck Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.72 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.72 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.730.001.7
20260.730.001.7
20270.720.001.7
20280.720.001.7
20290.720.001.7

Ruddy Duck Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Virgin Creek2820181995
Bald Mtn.1220241992
Dobbin Creek620171971
Cortez420242016
Ash Meadows220241993
Gardnerville220112004
Hiko219691969
Ruby Valley 2120242016
Eureka120091997

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.