BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Texas has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-25%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ruddy Duck Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruddy Duck in Texas. See the full index history below.

Ruddy Duck Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2432.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2432.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2432.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.170.000.82
20250.170.000.82
20260.170.000.82
20270.170.000.82
20280.170.000.82

Ruddy Duck Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Heidelberg3020142014
Loyola Beach2520081997
Bayside 31520112011
Quitman Cyn.1020012001
Loyola Beach 2520162011
Cactus420232019
Raymondville220071990
Dougherty220072007
Claytonville220222022
Dalhart220162016
Rock Island220102010
Presidio120072000
L. Atascosa Nwr120162016
Waka119971976
Floydada120102010
Blue Ridge119951995
San Pedro119991999

Ruddy Duck Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.