BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruddy Duck In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+112%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ruddy Duck In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.2–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.2–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.51.05.9
20273.51.16.0
20283.61.16.0
20293.61.26.0
20303.61.26.1

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA492025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA452025
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA352025
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA292023
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA212009
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA202009
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA162019
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA132010
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA122025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA112025
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA112011
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA92025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA82025
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA82024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA82024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA82013
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA82024
WestbyMONTANA72025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA62025
ChokioMINNESOTA42019
TenneyMINNESOTA42014
ShelbyMONTANA42018
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA42001
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA42008
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.