BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruddy Duck In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+154%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ruddy Duck In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 1.2–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 1.2–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.51.16.0
20263.61.16.0
20273.61.26.1
20283.61.26.1
20293.71.26.1

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA902022
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA722024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA362024
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA362024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA322024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA292023
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA282024
WestbyMONTANA252023
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA212009
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA212021
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA202009
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA162019
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA132010
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA112011
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA82024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA82024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA82013
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA82024
ChokioMINNESOTA42019
TenneyMINNESOTA42014
ShelbyMONTANA42018
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA42001
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA42008
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA42021
SunburstMONTANA32002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.