BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruddy Duck In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+115%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Ruddy Duck In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±197.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±197.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±197.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.000.56
20260.260.000.57
20270.260.000.57
20280.270.000.57
20290.270.000.57

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA201996
NatronaWYOMING81991
BrusettMONTANA72024
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA52015
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA52015
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA51977
RoyMONTANA42019
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA42002
BucknumWYOMING42018
HighwoodMONTANA32012
Coleman CouleeMONTANA32023
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA32019
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA32023
ClarkelenWYOMING31978
SavageMONTANA21980
IngomarMONTANA22016
PowdervilleMONTANA21974
Winifred 2MONTANA22024
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA22018
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA22021
Fort PierreSOUTH-DAKOTA22006
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA22009
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
CircleMONTANA11994
ShawmutMONTANA11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.