BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruddy Duck In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+117%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Ruddy Duck In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±316.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±316.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±316.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.000.55
20270.240.000.55
20280.250.000.56
20290.250.000.56
20300.250.000.56

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA201996
NatronaWYOMING81991
BrusettMONTANA72024
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA52015
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA52015
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA51977
RoyMONTANA42019
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA42002
BucknumWYOMING42018
HighwoodMONTANA32012
Coleman CouleeMONTANA32023
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA32019
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA32023
ClarkelenWYOMING31978
SavageMONTANA21980
IngomarMONTANA22016
PowdervilleMONTANA21974
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA22025
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA22018
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA22021
Fort PierreSOUTH-DAKOTA22006
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA22009
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
CircleMONTANA11994
ShawmutMONTANA11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.