BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ruddy Duck In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 489% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+489%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ruddy Duck in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Ruddy Duck In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.31 (95% range 0.10–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±151.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.31 (95% range 0.10–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.090.50
20270.300.090.51
20280.300.100.51
20290.310.100.52
20300.310.100.52

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GuffeyCOLORADO252015
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO152024
Mcphee Res.COLORADO152024
PiedraCOLORADO62023
Main CanyonUTAH62022
VernalUTAH62012
DoloresCOLORADO51984
Cortez 2COLORADO52015
Dixie NfUTAH52019
Baxter PassCOLORADO41997
DinosaurCOLORADO32025
AltonUTAH32011
FalfaCOLORADO22014
WaldenCOLORADO22021
San LuisCOLORADO21993
TincupCOLORADO22007
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO22024
DulceNEW-MEXICO22025
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO22017
CapulinNEW-MEXICO21993
M Warner ResUTAH22024
HatchUTAH22003
BicknellUTAH22008
BrookhurstWYOMING22017
Sybille CynWYOMING22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.