BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ruddy Duck In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWaterfowl

Ruddy Duck in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 722% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+722%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ruddy Duck has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 722% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Ruddy Duck In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.13–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ruddy Duck in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.13–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.110.51
20260.320.120.51
20270.320.120.52
20280.330.130.52
20290.330.130.53

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Ruddy Duck in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GuffeyCOLORADO252015
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO152024
Mcphee Res.COLORADO152024
DinosaurCOLORADO82024
PiedraCOLORADO62023
DulceNEW-MEXICO62024
Main CanyonUTAH62022
VernalUTAH62012
DoloresCOLORADO51984
Cortez 2COLORADO52015
Dixie NfUTAH52019
AlamosaCOLORADO42024
Baxter PassCOLORADO41997
AltonUTAH32011
FalfaCOLORADO22014
WaldenCOLORADO22021
San LuisCOLORADO21993
TincupCOLORADO22007
Cochetopa PassCOLORADO22024
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO22017
CapulinNEW-MEXICO21993
M Warner ResUTAH22024
HatchUTAH22003
BicknellUTAH22008
BrookhurstWYOMING22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.